La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cf2d16e8442a9a3b9ea20572e69b2f310dc59e64149324cca1b66cd942079a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 1,404$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.9 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 672.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 456.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Over | 72c | 358.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…f812backed Over | 80c | 336$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 311.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…ff59backed Over | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 29c | 284.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 750 | 51.3%385 W · 365 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…dfb5backed Under | 14c | 198.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 76c | 183.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 564 | 39.2%221 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 29c | 157.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…c554backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…a3eebacked Over | 78c | 117.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 70c | 108.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 26c | 55.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 30c | 54.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 693 | 50.9%353 W · 340 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 72c | 53.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +18.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Over | 78c | 46.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Over | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 71c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.