Music · resolved market
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93ce87fc221350c08749fa246b14cfd6026456b3cb82de37d77c41f1f85faa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 12c | 7,476$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…a994backed Yes | 25c | 3,703$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 79c | 2,409$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…009cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,329$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 8c | 1,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8a…0fc3backed Yes | 10c | 1,257$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 9c | 1,257$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,235$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…8dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 863$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…66aebacked Yes | 19c | 730$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…857fbacked Yes | 10c | 521$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ced0backed Yes | 7c | 509.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 423.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e10…e805backed Yes | 8c | 409.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 362.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 329.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked No | 74c | 291.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 5c | 266.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…c8abbacked Yes | 16c | 265.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…d4aabacked Yes | 8c | 244.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 8c | 237.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 14c | 202.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…8652backed Yes | 9c | 175.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…3e0bbacked Yes | 19c | 173.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 157.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe710…d907backed Yes | 16c | 152.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…3438backed Yes | 7c | 143.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked No | 80c | 141.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…a944backed Yes | 10c | 112.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…ce05backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed Yes | 38c | 37.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.