TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof XLG Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8725…eb10backed XLG Gaming42c596.98$253 inLost-$252.7132141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Bilibili Gaming56c358.34$200 inWon+$158.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed Bilibili Gaming69c299.98$206 inWon+$94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed XLG Gaming43c272.94$119 inLost-$118.717640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Bilibili Gaming58c223.75$130 inWon+$93.989737.1%36 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Bilibili Gaming58c200$116 inWon+$8417653.4%94 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Bilibili Gaming57c196.61$112 inWon+$85.0114955.7%83 W · 66 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed XLG Gaming44c135.25$60 inLost-$59.5115843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Bilibili Gaming56c135.25$76 inWon+$59.516043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Bilibili Gaming53c115.28$61 inWon+$54.4428241.1%116 W · 166 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Bilibili Gaming56c100$56 inWon+$4466650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Bilibili Gaming76c76.21$58 inWon+$18.292556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed XLG Gaming43c34.19$15 inLost-$14.77044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed XLG Gaming44c27$12 inLost-$11.886570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.