Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Hokori (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd955b649a0209c65d96f97f6b99d330a993927be3648a89ba9e0fa574963a8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, Hokori
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9625…5bb7backed Estar Backs | 67c | 2,010$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.3 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Estar Backs | 67c | 1,893$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.75 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…6c9abacked Hokori | 34c | 1,614$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Hokori | 31c | 1,491$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.63 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Hokori | 50c | 1,114$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.9 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 994.99$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Hokori | 2c | 612.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Hokori | 31c | 377.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Estar Backs | 50c | 352.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Hokori | 27c | 349.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Hokori | 33c | 332.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hokori | 33c | 298.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 201.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Estar Backs | 70c | 199.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estar Backs | 50c | 176.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Estar Backs | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Hokori | 31c | 125.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Hokori | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…ea01backed Hokori | 50c | 95.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…5ac6backed Estar Backs | 71c | 79.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…c376backed Estar Backs | 77c | 67.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Hokori | 50c | 63.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Estar Backs | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Estar Backs | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Estar Backs | 54c | 57.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…6ef5backed Hokori | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Hokori | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…39cfbacked Estar Backs | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 177 | 63.8%113 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Estar Backs | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Hokori (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Hokori - Game 1 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Hokori - Game 2 WinnerHokori won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.