NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9633d857310d7d52ad1a91daf805313a56c1dd043336da319ba10297ac04b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Flyers, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,570 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sharks | 56c | 603.31$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.52 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 44c | 434.08$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Flyers | 46c | 377.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.93 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Sharks | 39c | 296.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Flyers | 30c | 237.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sharks | 68c | 166.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sharks | 58c | 164.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Flyers | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Flyers | 17c | 103.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Flyers | 75c | 90.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 69c | 87.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Sharks | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Flyers | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Flyers | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Flyers | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Flyers | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Flyers | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Flyers | 47c | 27.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Sharks | 51c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Sharks | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. SharksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.