NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ece92b5da9594290e2ecf29973cf310cdaf6593bb3ca642f8d14f24933029bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,616 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 51c | 686.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.38 | 128 | 38.3%49 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 53c | 613.61$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 52c | 572$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 51c | 547.6$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Under | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f18…9aa7backed Under | 15c | 423.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 47c | 261$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 213.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 26c | 189.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 184.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 147$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…65e7backed Under | 70c | 143.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 40c | 124$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 111.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 21c | 99.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…adf9backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 68.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…5e98backed Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Under | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 62c | 31.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Over | 59c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…3fcdbacked Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 62c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Over | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. SharksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.