Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd979ac45fc40a3c183eab4d5698134794d5810c404790e8646a7f453a2589f40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayern Münchenof Bayern München, Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 56c | 8,957$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,025.62 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…f9d4backed Bayern München | 42c | 5,473$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 62c | 1,075$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.6 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Bayern München | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 60c | 928$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Bayern München | 38c | 921.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.05 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 59c | 755.98$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.42 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…895cbacked Bayern München | 62c | 643.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Bayern München | 55c | 511$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…23cbbacked Bayern München | 41c | 481.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Bayern München | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Bayern München | 41c | 421.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.95 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Bayern München | 40c | 400$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Bayern München | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Bayern München | 40c | 248.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 60c | 222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Bayern München | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…4922backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 63c | 146.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Bayern München | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Bayern München | 44c | 114.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 61c | 108$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 62c | 68.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Bayern München | 42c | 60.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Bayern München | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…1ac2backed Bayern München | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Bayern München | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Bayern München | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Bayern München | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Bayern München | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Bayern München | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.