Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a830c933be38322f760228f0e3a5fb596b4b251fe2f7fe2f2d032872a89d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baillyof Baena, Bailly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bailly | 73c | 2,530$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Baena | 8c | 2,457$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bailly | 57c | 1,451$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Bailly | 26c | 1,349$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.75 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Baena | 11c | 700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Bailly | 23c | 648.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.03 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Baena | 62c | 486.56$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Bailly | 45c | 439$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Baena | 71c | 420.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Baena | 71c | 420$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…d251backed Baena | 49c | 417.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Baena | 35c | 394$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bailly | 48c | 367.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bailly | 63c | 302.62$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Baena | 40c | 265.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baena | 43c | 231.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bailly | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bailly | 24c | 170$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Bailly | 68c | 167.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bailly | 67c | 156.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Baena | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Bailly | 24c | 134.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Bailly | 51c | 134.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bailly | 28c | 128.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bailly | 43c | 126.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Bailly | 29c | 122.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Baena | 73c | 99.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Baena | 38c | 99.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Baena | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Baena | 43c | 88.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Baena | 76c | 79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Baena | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Baena | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Baena | 43c | 56.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Baena | 39c | 52.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Baena | 43c | 50.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Baena | 76c | 49.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7e08backed Baena | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bailly | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Baena | 33c | 33.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baena | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…adcebacked Bailly | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Baena | 37c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Baena | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…a2f4backed Baena | 42c | 24.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Baena | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Bailly | 67c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…b642backed Baena | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…ed39backed Bailly | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.