Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ab81fbd1b758b62ef231352def9c4c44cbc1001e2804ca379b60c304be4478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 185.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 171.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 163.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 160.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 8c | 160.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 141.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 29c | 130.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 120.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 109.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 18c | 101.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 88.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 16c | 67.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 31c | 51.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 79c | 44.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 28c | 43.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 35.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 22.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…6f7bbacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…2dcbbacked No | 67c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.