Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e859bb5696466e0bef74de73b429f4307943202d34a5ccf2137629f5a26823a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 74c | 735.33$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…8c6fbacked Yes | 25c | 523.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 484.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 447.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 209.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 67c | 176.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 77c | 163.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 145.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 139.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 136.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 109.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 22c | 106.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…962cbacked No | 80c | 104.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 28c | 88.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 87.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 86.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 68c | 79.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 26c | 75.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 78c | 69.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 79c | 65.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 65.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 75c | 64.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 60.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 72c | 51.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 50.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 21c | 50.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…6f7bbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 46.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 26c | 44.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 44.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…1b70backed No | 80c | 43.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…73cfbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…d9fabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 39.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 35c | 36.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 78c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 80c | 34.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 77c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 26.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 74c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.