Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6fb9cc3d0fc10d07b475e19c5662c4c2ba7242bc8770ad6eaddc1bd36b6274
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 356.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 7c | 176.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 34c | 176.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 71c | 173.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 60c | 165.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 109.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 50c | 95.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 79.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 73c | 72.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 24c | 67.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 67.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 57c | 64.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 61.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 61.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 57.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 53.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 53.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 35c | 49.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 27c | 46.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 28c | 46.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 53c | 44.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 51c | 38.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 79c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 49c | 33.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 35c | 32.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 32.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 28.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…1a26backed No | 59c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 71c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.