NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ce65ee18b419fdb720cbe080313f6ae363e00939d2ea11d6de07ff10b4d9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 64c | 1,634$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 943.49$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.82 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Over | 61c | 627.66$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.66 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 39c | 444$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 364$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 36c | 325.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 62c | 311.8$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 37c | 250.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Over | 63c | 205$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 39c | 140$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 38c | 124$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c6…66d8backed Under | 38c | 88.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 38c | 61.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 41c | 48.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. OilersOilers won
- Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.