NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4c4fb8417ec9509b379cdbee615a98019a2935b5bb6fb3594d21f5bdd45799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers | 38c | 629.97$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.28 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Oilers | 42c | 335.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Flames | 63c | 265.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 61c | 171.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flames | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Flames | 63c | 101.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Flames | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 37c | 100.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Flames | 62c | 84.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flames | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oilers | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Flames | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Flames | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Flames | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Oilers | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flames | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Flames | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Flames | 58c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Flames | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flames | 63c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed Flames | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Flames | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Flames | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Flames | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Flames | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. OilersOilers won
- Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.