Tennis · resolved market
Midland: Sakura Hosogi vs Claire Liu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda018ccdfec2c38d7ae43f3e50621142bb66737838d41af444d0c2dc8f65b647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hosogiof Hosogi, Liu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Liu | 18c | 5,999$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.51 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Hosogi | 34c | 1,339$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.34 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Liu | 62c | 775.56$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.76 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Liu | 8c | 642.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Liu | 78c | 526.04$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.6 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Hosogi | 20c | 526$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.51 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Hosogi | 22c | 490.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.42 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Liu | 18c | 446.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hosogi | 23c | 183.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liu | 70c | 177.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Liu | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Liu | 78c | 145.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Hosogi | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Liu | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Liu | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Hosogi | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Hosogi | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hosogi | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Liu | 77c | 97.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Hosogi | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hosogi | 16c | 76.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hosogi | 21c | 74.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Liu | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Liu | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Liu | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Liu | 77c | 60.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hosogi | 23c | 60.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hosogi | 58c | 59.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Hosogi | 46c | 58.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hosogi | 39c | 53.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Liu | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…ae5fbacked Hosogi | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Liu | 78c | 42.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Liu | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Liu | 42c | 38.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Hosogi | 36c | 35.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Liu | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Liu | 51c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…f75cbacked Liu | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Liu | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…d96fbacked Liu | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f911backed Liu | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Hosogi | 74c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Hosogi | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…8ef9backed Liu | 79c | 14.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…255dbacked Liu | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…4fc5backed Liu | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.