Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump call Vladimir Putin “crazy” on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1bc74df232be6700e95570b6e11f0a0fdd43e9c949f765a166630af620d6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 6,406$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.14 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,769$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 1,631$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 1,590$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed Yes | 7c | 1,305$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…5e02backed Yes | 7c | 800.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 7c | 729.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…f41abacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 6c | 386.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 300.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 185$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.