Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda2202cd81b0783efc5738b697010c3099470bf686ccb3a531a1ea21b1c010fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof San Diego FC, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego FC | 32c | 2,280$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.57 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Real Salt Lake | 67c | 1,272$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.42 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Salt Lake | 68c | 328.03$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Salt Lake | 68c | 289.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Real Salt Lake | 71c | 194.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Real Salt Lake | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed San Diego FC | 38c | 93.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Real Salt Lake | 71c | 75.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Salt Lake | 72c | 52.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Salt Lake | 69c | 52.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…0dc1backed San Diego FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Real Salt Lake | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Real Salt Lake | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Real Salt Lake | 69c | 33.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)this page
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.