Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb252193e0915007012b65dc080505ea146b084fb1b97a24620573a16c6809e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,479 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 1,676$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,526$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 25c | 1,250$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 22c | 435.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 24c | 424.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 78c | 399.98$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 398.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 344.64$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 21c | 249.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 249.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 20c | 242.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Under | 78c | 240.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…da13backed Over | 22c | 240.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…0047backed Under | 78c | 210.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…389abacked Over | 22c | 210.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 21c | 142.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 133.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 76c | 129.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 78c | 117.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 115.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 96.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 72c | 73.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Over | 29c | 68.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 44c | 68.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 29c | 65.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…b804backed Over | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 72c | 59.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 46c | 49.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 76c | 47.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 37.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 74c | 33.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 62c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Under | 79c | 29.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 51c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 76c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 76c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.