Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FCSB vs. Lyon end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda39fecf7050cca32f2f180bff03be2d4d3bdf6ac0ae5e5ef35b27b8c1fccb28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 25c | 3,334$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.98 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Yes | 76c | 2,855$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 868.28$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.63 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 29c | 749.55$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…219abacked Yes | 59c | 470$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 411.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 26c | 399.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 48c | 363.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c206backed Yes | 30c | 333.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 26c | 329.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked No | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 66c | 296.96$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Yes | 73c | 290.94$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…8faebacked No | 74c | 269.15$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…73d7backed Yes | 27c | 258.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 244.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 158.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Yes | 30c | 142.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…a716backed No | 75c | 142$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…3718backed Yes | 69c | 100.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…ef36backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…e519backed Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…4620backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…f0f9backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…5c64backed No | 72c | 89.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfea…b289backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…b06bbacked Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…ce17backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…3e81backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8a…5213backed Yes | 25c | 61.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…c385backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ea…7ce0backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 30.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…69efbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c6…bd22backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…30f7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…c525backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…7493backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FCSB vs. Lyon end in a draw?this page
- Will FCSB win on 2025-03-06?No won
- Will Lyon win on 2025-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.