MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5e7fbd6457be6c98f434e7e5ac9792e38b97b6f4501da0feb293ffb60142e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 45c | 8,563$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 6,445$2,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 1,335$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 11c | 1,212$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 54c | 552.78$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 43c | 195$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…8d37backed Over | 43c | 102.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 76.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 63.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 46c | 55.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.