MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaaa1b8668137849605a2d15f26bc2a710805c56edd6b0c95c3c6bcd26115904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 4,257$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 3,439$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.01 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 1,359$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.14 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 46c | 1,016$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.3 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 46c | 440$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 400.62$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 336.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 316.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 251$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 190.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 158.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 13c | 82.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 55c | 75.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 55.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 55c | 50.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 34.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 47c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 60c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.