MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90984f13fbd96a43056204e0479ce6d1b003644cb220df92f13a710d161a7ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 60c | 9,234$5,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540.15 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 586.03$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 33c | 516.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 35c | 451.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 399$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 346.21$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 40c | 275.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 58c | 266$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed New York Mets | 30c | 223.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 18c | 174.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Mets | 24c | 171.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 166.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked New York Mets | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 29c | 111.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 102.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed New York Mets | 39c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Mets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 77.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 50.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked New York Mets | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 47.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 46.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 44.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 29c | 43.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed New York Mets | 59c | 41.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 35.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…1a0dbacked New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.