MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8d4736d0ce10848ea9587bba85965eae61fc90f773add01c2ba4f3959947a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 44c | 6,313$2,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 3,074$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.44 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,727$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,875$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,244$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 704.55$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 620.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 579.18$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 501.51$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 68c | 301.43$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 284.8$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 37c | 283.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 257.2$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 62c | 240.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 184.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 138.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 123.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 123.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 121.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Over | 45c | 96.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 56.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…10c1backed Under | 60c | 42.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 61c | 38.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 28.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 66c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.