MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd6ceacf238a07f3c275879836e1fdd9794ccb4b61bdc680623283d97d98190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 2,367$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.78 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 45c | 2,100$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed No | 52c | 290.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 283.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…b170backed No | 51c | 204.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 66c | 198.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 45c | 167$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 44c | 139.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 108.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 48c | 105.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 44c | 50.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Metsthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.