Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac46fea47fcb12fecad5920b25cb44acc001263b5b5566b205e5d5bfa69fee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 665.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 495.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 74c | 428.49$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 377.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 308.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 305.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 287.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 20c | 173.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 79c | 166.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 34c | 110.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 104.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 101.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 95.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 23c | 82.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 36.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 63c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.