Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c5938408a247e61d4cc9ae3f49f7a6562a381ec14c5f96bc6255644420c730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 2c | 633.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 527.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 20c | 507.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 32c | 472.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 23c | 388.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 358.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 30c | 329.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 12c | 313.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 299.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 286.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 282.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 40c | 249.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 179.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 49c | 158.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 68c | 151.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 10c | 150.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 140.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 127$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 103.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 86.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 84.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 81.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…6384backed Yes | 12c | 80.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 75c | 71.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 70.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 79c | 58.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 51.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 33c | 48.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 66c | 42.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 39.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 35c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 37.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 56c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 33.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 32.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 30.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 28.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…22f5backed No | 37c | 28.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 52c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…6f74backed Yes | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 79c | 24.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 74c | 22.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 73c | 15.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 72c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.