Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbffc696b6a9d602c6c28f1c63d307d7ae3a0f2ccb32a720177209f2e2f3c28a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 862.33$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 791$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 33c | 453.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.38 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 47c | 402.87$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 337.56$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 17c | 311.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 272.2$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 252.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 71c | 229.9$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 209.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 205.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 203.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 190.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 185.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 185.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 159.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 157$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 152.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 138.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 133.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 133.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 130.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 126.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 114.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 112.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 20c | 102.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 102$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 93.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 88.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 22c | 85.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 80.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 23c | 77.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 22c | 76.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 76.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 75.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 22c | 71.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 31c | 60.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 21c | 59.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 64c | 54.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 75c | 47.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 45.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 45.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 41.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 41.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 40.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 36.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 76c | 36.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 24.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 22.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 71c | 22.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 18.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 18.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.