Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f32292f28173f0d7f63c2b062d03d052ac48162a5dd20431d6a3df4c1cbb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,482$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,233$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 8c | 1,215$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,044$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 805.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 15c | 743.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 21c | 731.48$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 707.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 3c | 636.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 15c | 599.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 541.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 2c | 534.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 532.35$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 498.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 3c | 471.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 308$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 197.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 195.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 10c | 191.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 73c | 176.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 161.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 160.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 38c | 143.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 16c | 139.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 118.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 31c | 107.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 60c | 102.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 15c | 97.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 80.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 69c | 76.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 66c | 72.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 29c | 56.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 53.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 48c | 51.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 50.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 28c | 41.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked No | 59c | 40.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 68c | 36.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 75c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…745cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 75c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.