Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae01a3057df64fb5006df4bdb78392dda33a983e9c7b51e76f8c2f37edd47b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 52c | 439.85$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 137.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 113.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 19c | 112.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 64c | 102.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 100.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 99.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 87.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 44c | 84.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…cdc0backed No | 34c | 81.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 39c | 77.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 76.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 40c | 59.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 59.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 29c | 55.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 40c | 54.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 68c | 50.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 49.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 44.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 26c | 38.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 36c | 36.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 46c | 32.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 42c | 30.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 49c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 54c | 23.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.