Asian League · resolved market
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8aea46e22d377e72f865b58604a159b4697cd82a6bddb706af766faef57a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 46c | 2,541$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.52 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 2,461$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.48 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 52c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +356.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 68c | 1,931$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.14 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 1,319$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.62 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed Yes | 47c | 1,266$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 1,084$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 32c | 931.09$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.14 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 41c | 868.17$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.62 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Yes | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…20eabacked Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 59c | 324.22$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 52c | 289.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 48c | 203.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 51c | 199.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 49c | 150.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 31c | 122.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 121.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 11c | 109.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 434 | 52.1%226 W · 208 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 58c | 104.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 98.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 50c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 90.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 61c | 90.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 48c | 85.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 261 | 48.7%127 W · 134 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…6c94backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 38c | 69.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 71c | 68.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 48c | 62.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 60.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…ad9bbacked Yes | 70c | 55.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 53c | 47.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 25c | 45.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 582 | 43%250 W · 332 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 76c | 40.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 43c | 38.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 762 | 55.9%426 W · 336 L | +38.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 53c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 48c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.