Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8cc64d4783311b502d8f4e5f9c2ac0fac9328972c9c10980c6d80956c53c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 21c | 1,802$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.3 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,166$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,002$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.77 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 14c | 917.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 10c | 473$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 78c | 455.16$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 73c | 442.81$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 71c | 423$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 4c | 403.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 338.28$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 308.27$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 29c | 267.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 24c | 255.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 71c | 112.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 35c | 107.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 25c | 86.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 30c | 86.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Yes | 20c | 74.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 33c | 60.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…9bf1backed Yes | 23c | 51.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 31c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 33c | 49.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Yes | 29c | 47.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 33c | 42.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed No | 65c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 305 | 48.5%148 W · 157 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 74c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed No | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.