Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb013a0426067797a90300a4065e2683abd60a0775e1466bb0288043f2594a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb7b…3051backed No | 45c | 1,674$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 699.82$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 55c | 526.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 55c | 277.77$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 55c | 227.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 60c | 225.22$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Yes | 40c | 197.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 54c | 184.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 59c | 181.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 55c | 94.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 71.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 54c | 66.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ae…2c9fbacked No | 76c | 49.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 43c | 40.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 46c | 38.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 34c | 36.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 66c | 19.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.