Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22be65ea0b217bce107d7c2fb9277f4de9499a10b4c24d952bf4983bf4812899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC St. Pauli 1910of RB Leipzig, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked RB Leipzig | 34c | 3,392$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.42 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 1,381$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 1,120$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.78 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RB Leipzig | 20c | 611$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 80c | 573.12$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 444$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 269.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed RB Leipzig | 31c | 224$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 60c | 165.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed RB Leipzig | 19c | 154.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 86.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 77.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed RB Leipzig | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked RB Leipzig | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 80c | 55.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 32.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4ed8backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…9588backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 23.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.