Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9833ee8ca9102aa255130b49bb70a7a1a8b90a83d24189fa331dca9b77e7b426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,747$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Over | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.93 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 13c | 1,554$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 14c | 1,535$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 19c | 1,079$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 13c | 491.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 6c | 212.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 11c | 143.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 30c | 109.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Under | 14c | 102.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 101.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 77c | 91.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 13c | 80.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 30c | 36.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…6aa1backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…1d89backed Over | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.