TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over49c43,062$21,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,045.946358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over47c38,236$17,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,909.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c25,003$13,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,946.13,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.866761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under59c9,453$5,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,857.842,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under60c6,979$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.2228345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Under51c4,934$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under50c4,383$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.624050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under53c4,090$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Under53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8805952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under53c3,200$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5046549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.278448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over48c2,557$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under53c2,400$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1285843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under51c2,400$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1682948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d7babacked Over36c2,089$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over14c2,060$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Under62c1,923$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77e8…6854backed Under51c1,820$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under55c1,703$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.665349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under52c1,600$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Over1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Over1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6586744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over15c1,353$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under51c1,274$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.262138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over48c1,268$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.6620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under53c1,226$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.422445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5648158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5645944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under51c1,111$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3915742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under52c1,010$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.799459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under51c1,000$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4954240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45038646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Over1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Under54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over25c954.4$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.742035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over39c853.85$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33312635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under52c840.54$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.465870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over44c831.89$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0311540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd72e…b58fbacked Under55c787.26$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under68c718.15$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.253140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3298950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under62c699.23$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.2315540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under51c681.47$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.926842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under53c650$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.58949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under53c649.91$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.9616846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2828851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2826647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2825349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under52c599.99$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.789850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Over48c596.09$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1340%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over50c575.02$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.513158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under66c546.4$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over48c545.73$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.0418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under60c539.96$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1326445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under53c531.49$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Over51c509.8$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under54c499.49$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over48c485.81$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3811049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Under55c480.05$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.517365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under53c480$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.66446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under53c480$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.65745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under51c480$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.65451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over44c452.27$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1994969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under51c452$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under68c447.05$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.471,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under76c423.47$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.632766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under57c403.6$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.62642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over19c401.21$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.65064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1886549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under53c393$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.712853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under55c376.27$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.321266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.25046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.25650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under52c339.11$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2428755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under53c320$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.45743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over23c304.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1522245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed Over34c289.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.452941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over47c281.53$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.326844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under53c280$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.67050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under53c280$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.65646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under51c254.9$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.93554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under54c235$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.71,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under53c225$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8733047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under68c224.09$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.719856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under51c204.93$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.339248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Under57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0511539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under55c185$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.