WNBA · resolved market
Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb3137f252297c3c16c34592a98cdb6a65650fd12adafb888a99276b2289c85b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof PortlandFire, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 14,771$8,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,623.25 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 4,356$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.65 | 1,803 | 51.8%934 W · 869 L | +56.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 38c | 3,972$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.52 | 1,635 | 50.2%820 W · 815 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 37c | 2,928$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.51 | 1,025 | 47.8%490 W · 535 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire | 39c | 1,700$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.79 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +19.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 1,058$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.18 | 397 | 50.1%199 W · 198 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked PortlandFire | 75c | 227.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 238 | 67.2%160 W · 78 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed PortlandFire | 39c | 192$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked PortlandFire | 39c | 148.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…169bbacked PortlandFire | 58c | 100.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…6cf3backed PortlandFire | 40c | 73.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Connecticut Sun | 60c | 73.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed PortlandFire | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed PortlandFire | 39c | 37.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Connecticut Sun | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Connecticut Sun | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked PortlandFire | 72c | 30.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked PortlandFire | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed PortlandFire | 39c | 29.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 166.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-7.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.