WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6d01d5d5c55ac10f9c5d0da00ba72b6f55964ad8a7c80e52c681dd649f8aff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 2,524$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.37 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 2,428$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.41 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,795$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.93 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 52c | 1,070$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.38 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 754.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 587.97$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 73c | 275.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 271$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 27c | 238.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 56c | 154.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 54c | 121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 56c | 109.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 98.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 33.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Over | 71c | 26.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Over | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 166.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-7.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.