WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fff26641f8e80a440b9106188a98e1c2124c6cbe4c9e235153610accc67296c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 12,717$5,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,596.11 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…1041backed Under | 56c | 6,841$3,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,010.07 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 56c | 2,945$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.72 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 921.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 55c | 597.48$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.87 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 11c | 403$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Over | 45c | 261.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 56c | 261.45$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 52c | 242.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 45c | 190.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 56c | 187.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 56c | 160.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 56c | 118.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…4bb5backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…789dbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 56c | 85.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 56c | 76.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 56c | 71.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 44c | 58.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…2756backed Over | 45c | 52.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 46.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…1ac3backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Over | 45c | 33.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 56c | 32.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 56c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Over | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 166.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-7.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.