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WNBA · resolved market

Spread: PortlandFire (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
PortlandFireof PortlandFire, Connecticut Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,430 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked PortlandFire72c10,008$7,203 inWon+$2,804.6416152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire16c6,624$1,060 inWon+$5,564.153952.9%285 W · 254 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun28c4,537$1,248 inLost-$1,248.041,63550.2%820 W · 815 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Connecticut Sun52c3,465$1,801 inLost-$1,801.0528348.4%137 W · 146 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire48c3,210$1,542 inWon+$1,667.941,85052%962 W · 888 L+60.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Connecticut Sun30c1,520$456 inLost-$455.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed PortlandFire48c1,074$516 inWon+$558.6250047.2%236 W · 264 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Connecticut Sun53c772.91$410 inLost-$409.6869550.9%354 W · 341 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked PortlandFire67c416.83$280 inWon+$136.4524367.1%163 W · 80 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Connecticut Sun31c264.92$81 inLost-$81.4235826.3%94 W · 264 L-22.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed PortlandFire56c241.97$135 inWon+$106.979254.3%50 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Connecticut Sun47c214.36$100 inLost-$1005952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed PortlandFire16c205$33 inWon+$172.2610858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Connecticut Sun52c192.31$100 inLost-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-74.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Connecticut Sun26c167.01$43 inLost-$43.3114139%55 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun46c156.05$71 inLost-$71.481,06647.7%508 W · 558 L-2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797f…f08abacked PortlandFire64c123.64$79 inWon+$44.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Connecticut Sun43c116.28$50 inLost-$5014048.6%68 W · 72 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe592…74adbacked Connecticut Sun56c100$56 inLost-$56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Connecticut Sun50c100$50 inLost-$5011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e35…3655backed Connecticut Sun33c92.48$30 inLost-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Connecticut Sun32c88.9$29 inLost-$28.8338650.8%196 W · 190 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Connecticut Sun26c81$21 inLost-$21.063933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Connecticut Sun26c76.92$20 inLost-$208860.2%53 W · 35 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b48…1d04backed Connecticut Sun26c75.95$20 inLost-$19.58540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Connecticut Sun42c71.88$30 inLost-$29.9416745.5%76 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc0…749abacked PortlandFire56c62.5$35 inWon+$27.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Connecticut Sun37c53.71$20 inLost-$19.991741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed PortlandFire74c47.46$35 inWon+$12.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-77.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Connecticut Sun35c46.62$16 inLost-$16.4942747.1%201 W · 226 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286c…f34ebacked Connecticut Sun53c39.34$21 inLost-$20.791752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c8…b949backed PortlandFire50c30$15 inWon+$151643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked PortlandFire76c26.31$20 inWon+$6.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb481…4db8backed PortlandFire49c24.49$12 inWon+$12.492445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed PortlandFire74c24.45$18 inWon+$6.451838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed PortlandFire71c20$14 inWon+$5.835150.4%177 W · 174 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8428…b41fbacked PortlandFire75c16.42$12 inWon+$4.095457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.