Earnings · resolved market
Will Netflix say "Jake Paul" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7a2fa584b368ef8cdbbc216ecc09a914a9fc03ff72af62ed549b8bbb83c16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x918e…8359backed Yes | 40c | 8,567$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,140.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…6aefbacked No | 60c | 8,567$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 79c | 257.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 17 | 100%17 W · 0 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 70c | 132.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 73c | 130.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 15c | 110.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 65c | 92.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…58e0backed No | 63c | 80.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 35c | 60.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…937bbacked No | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…fe56backed No | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…86efbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 33.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329a…7e16backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix say "Jake Paul" during earnings call?this page
- Will Netflix say "Ad-Supported" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Gaming" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Hollywood" during earnings call?No won
- Will Netflix say "Live" or "Event" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Paramount" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Partnership" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Profitable" during earnings call?No won
- Will Netflix say "Stranger Things" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?No won
- Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.