Earnings · resolved market
Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9b10fc413f226401c939d47305662aeca795cf1b37453fd44ee4b0099888e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 42c | 719.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…bb4fbacked Yes | 24c | 431.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 34c | 288.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 41cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…d4ddbacked Yes | 11c | 185.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…d6c4backed Yes | 65c | 153.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…433abacked Yes | 65c | 133.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 113.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 65c | 98.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 66c | 91.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 41c | 87.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 31c | 86.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 42c | 71.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2441…6d21backed Yes | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 49c | 61.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…2bf1backed Yes | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 38.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked Yes | 75c | 35.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…8d15backed Yes | 65c | 32.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe388…1a61backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…f00bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…41bcbacked Yes | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…82d5backed Yes | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…ac96backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…881cbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…1f12backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…0f65backed Yes | 60c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…b855backed Yes | 60c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3ab2backed Yes | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…f339backed Yes | 60c | 17.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…5ea6backed Yes | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…85e1backed Yes | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…b50fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?this page
- Will Netflix say "Ad-Supported" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Gaming" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Hollywood" during earnings call?No won
- Will Netflix say "Jake Paul" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Live" or "Event" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Paramount" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Partnership" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Profitable" during earnings call?No won
- Will Netflix say "Stranger Things" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.