Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7fc1babb1c7470e557cdc7d042846b52de5acbb43df3f8d48a0fef7db17a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,152 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 33c | 3,998$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.35 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 73c | 2,600$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,857$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 24c | 1,250$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Under | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 10c | 334.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 296$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 68c | 269$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 16c | 152.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…c32bbacked Over | 34c | 103.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 67c | 64.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 69c | 59.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 36.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 32.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 66c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.