TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,427 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8566…c626backed Over49c81,241$40,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,008.232236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c55,751$28,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,533.613,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under51c39,193$19,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,204.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under48c8,566$4,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,471.0919139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over35c8,500$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.9916045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Under53c5,200$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.811957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c2,458$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.5548658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over79c2,405$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91113461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under21c2,310$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.61,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Over80c1,544$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.4966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over45c1,115$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4824132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Over36c833.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.996550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over61c821.31$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under52c787.37$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.091,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under53c606.48$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.941,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Under52c524.25$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.547251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over50c474.07$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2373823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under52c427.51$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.512064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Under51c400.1$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.055653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1966844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Over52c399.98$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.992748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under21c380.94$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.645928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over79c379.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Over36c277.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.983342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Over37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under51c268.21$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.130647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over31c227.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over49c202.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16017055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1167950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x084e…71d6backed Over51c196.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over80c188.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over56c177.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under50c142.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.042343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under45c135.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2219254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Over50c118.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under50c118.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3721540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under21c117.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9331145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Over79c117.72$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over56c116.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over56c109.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5911252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd816…35d9backed Over73c107.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over52c105.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5526433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Under51c102.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.473040%12 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea8…af03backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over79c96.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.426955.1%38 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under52c65.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.289658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under48c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+56.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e31…a753backed Over37c61.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under22c60.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2455058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab4…3d2dbacked Under26c56.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+133.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under52c54.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.146659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over48c52.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over53c50.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over59c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.255655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cd…2da0backed Under48c46.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.23785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+47.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over42c40.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over45c40.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.98243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Under32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.21855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa2…a4f3backed Under52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…6562backed Under48c34.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over72c33.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413073.1%95 W · 35 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209068.9%62 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Under52c31.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Under50c29.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.991861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over34c29.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1822221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over60c28.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2744655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under50c26.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2210454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125066%33 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127758.4%45 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed Over80c22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over76c20.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…a572backed Over78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610771%76 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over77c19.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.177766.2%51 W · 26 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Over70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53778.4%29 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.