Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafee55cb2bd88fd6e7ce95d7894fee8a5026aa81243ef381aba1cb7577f56424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,754 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 1,761$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 65c | 823.81$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.58 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 748.19$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 45c | 529$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…b131backed Yes | 60c | 503$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 60c | 483.65$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 447.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 33c | 325.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…dc0abacked Yes | 60c | 268.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Yes | 58c | 258.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 40c | 148.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 40c | 148.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 59c | 138.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 60c | 125.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 67c | 101.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…0433backed No | 42c | 89.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed No | 42c | 86.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed No | 42c | 82.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 43c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…68e2backed Yes | 59c | 25.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Yes | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.