Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbd54c361f268c418f280a66622569fe3e6dae67ca7c26af5481a7c12bc96641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 2c | 20,436$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.7 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 3c | 1,895$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.61 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 2c | 1,120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 875.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 653.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 2c | 650.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 583.53$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 469.15$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 7c | 455.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 5c | 339.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 237.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7846backed Yes | 5c | 211.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +920%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 10c | 195.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 177.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 72c | 162.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 10c | 151.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 20c | 98.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 69.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 31c | 64.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 78c | 61.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 36c | 51.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 55c | 49.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…06a2backed Yes | 40c | 48.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 80c | 39.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 75c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 80c | 20.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.