Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc5369beb48ed409a27f2d90d56ea18a39ee878a042e233174ca1e09aa1d07e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 50c | 746.64$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.47 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 49c | 524.28$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.44 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 395.02$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 348.04$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 315.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 35c | 265.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 260.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 242.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed No | 77c | 240.04$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 226.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 206.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 48c | 156.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 49c | 147.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 56c | 138.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 115.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 62c | 94.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked Yes | 37c | 88.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 54c | 87.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 87.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 75c | 86.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 75.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 72.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 67c | 72.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…9424backed Yes | 24c | 62.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 57c | 61.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 65c | 59.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 42c | 58.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 58.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 54c | 56.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 51.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 57c | 50.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 49c | 49.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 49c | 49.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 48.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 48c | 48.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 47.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 47.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 47c | 47.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 56c | 42.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 46c | 38.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 49c | 34.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 51c | 33.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 43c | 33.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 49c | 32.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 49c | 29.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 28.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 25.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 48c | 24.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 62c | 23.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 55c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed Yes | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 16.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.