TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c918.7$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.194,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes47c721.29$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c656.96$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.484,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes42c531.9$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c490.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c325.77$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c260.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.791,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No63c253.83$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.371,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No70c252.37$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.712,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c216.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c213.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No56c198.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes14c189.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed No78c184.06$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.152962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c175.28$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes19c145.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c132.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes21c131.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6314544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No62c128.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6659923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes59c123.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7621142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes20c108.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1822934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c107.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.874,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No57c106.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed Yes22c103.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.125641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No63c101.72$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4624066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No74c95.58$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9633243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5685…3056backed No74c92.67$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.033132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes35c85.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.954465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c83.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No57c83.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.562,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes40c81.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5937942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c80.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bb…b8aabacked No60c79.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.05887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No42c74.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.712,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes20c69.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0910736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248d…3512backed Yes25c69.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No43c68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed No59c67.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5217838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes35c65.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3911223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde55…dfc0backed Yes32c64.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.693627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No78c63.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.963675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes44c62.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5152533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c61.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes32c59.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.241,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c56.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes31c52.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.662,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c46.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes53c44.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8325344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…eff5backed Yes33c44.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No52c42.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.531,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes44c38.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9932352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadd4…06a2backed Yes39c36.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7048…f896backed Yes42c36.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.172520%5 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes61c34.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes35c32.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d0d…6b9cbacked Yes33c31.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No80c30.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1318878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes40c30.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No63c30.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.279668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No80c29.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No56c29.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b7…847cbacked Yes53c28.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes41c28.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c27.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.662,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5524…6592backed Yes66c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No64c23.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2838961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes52c21.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32de…d5e4backed No54c21.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No67c20.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c20.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.722,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa63f…a744backed No57c20.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661e…070cbacked No61c19.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No76c19.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5919547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No79c18.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.819666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No75c18.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.617376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c17.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No68c16.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2926861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No63c16.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No80c14.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.947173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8a…3430backed No80c13.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.74875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ff…5596backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671e…5a23backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…d853backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66dd…fd27backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d7…0d2abacked No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd37…aadebacked No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x137b…d133backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9efd…e57bbacked No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb72…17a7backed No80c12.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.