Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbff20836758bbef7a5c0411b7264d7adbbb704e9abe1d52c6a7cb8fcb523502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 687.11$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 624.16$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 61c | 459.21$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.76 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 320.4$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 36c | 246.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 208.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 19c | 184.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 54c | 177.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 163.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 151.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 118.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 89.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 76.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 75.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 42c | 59.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 35c | 54.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 51.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 62c | 49.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 47.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 45c | 44.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 43.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 41.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 38.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 38.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…efd9backed Yes | 34c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 34.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed No | 77c | 31.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 30.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 41c | 26.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 23.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 23.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…24f9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 66c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.