TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,909 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes22c910.83$197 inLost-$196.853262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes5c469.09$23 inLost-$23.384641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes9c455.15$40 inLost-$403116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes7c423.96$32 inLost-$31.594736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes6c294.55$19 inLost-$18.59837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72bf…5dd9backed Yes18c168.18$30 inLost-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No80c80.96$65 inWon+$16.233158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7521…a63abacked Yes21c75$16 inLost-$15.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Yes24c49.3$12 inLost-$11.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes32c40.4$13 inLost-$12.842860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No54c20.2$11 inWon+$9.291866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No78c19.41$15 inWon+$4.221973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No74c15$11 inWon+$3.93467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x047f…fa83backed No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.