Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc20596cb177fc4492ed4d3ee407155481f8a9b2c1db1104a1a650e5cf0b7812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Genoa CFCof AS Roma, Genoa CFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,826 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AS Roma | 23c | 3,986$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.06 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Genoa CFC | 79c | 3,819$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.97 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Genoa CFC | 78c | 1,859$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.84 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed AS Roma | 18c | 1,242$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 467.85$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Genoa CFC | 77c | 376.71$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed AS Roma | 22c | 322.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed AS Roma | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Genoa CFC | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed AS Roma | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed AS Roma | 22c | 178$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…921ebacked AS Roma | 15c | 123.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed AS Roma | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed AS Roma | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed AS Roma | 22c | 85.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked AS Roma | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 43.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…7807backed Genoa CFC | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Genoa CFC | 79c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Genoa CFC | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Genoa CFC won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.