Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2a9e59e7a0999da9f553fc6416f14a6b4c053396729717104c39d003393f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 1c | 2,752$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 640.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 10c | 581.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 14c | 564.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 495.12$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 437.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 341.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 7c | 299.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 75c | 231.28$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 221.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 216.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 12c | 214.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 12c | 213.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 204$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 198.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 11c | 196.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 26c | 191.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 177.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 156.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 14c | 154.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 10c | 151.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 115.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 87.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 23c | 74.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 33c | 71.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 68.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 67.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 60.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 29c | 47.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 34.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 67c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 69c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 16.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…e17fbacked No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 69c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.